Monday, May 4, 2015

Teddy's updated PEI prediction

Just a small change due to further research, each the Tories and Liberals gain and lose a seat.

Also a change in colours to match the colours used on the Alberta map.

No, that does not mean Wildrose will win a seat on PEI, that is the Green Party, it's simply the same shade of green used for Wildrose to keep the maps looking uniform.

Polls open in PEI in 40 minutes.
Get out and vote!

Teddy's final Alberta prediction

Not much to say, I'll let everyone react to the shock in their own way, but in short, I am predicting an NDP majority in Alberta.

I'll have much more to say on this after the ballots are counted.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Teddy's final PEI election prediction

With polls closing in about 23 hours, I have finalized my PEI election prediction; presented here:

I expect the Liberals to retain their majority, and the Tories to present a qualified opposition. The NDP will likely not won a seat, but the Green leader seems to be on the edge of winning.

Sadly, with all my attention focused towards Alberta, I have nothing more to add.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Teddy's Penultimate Alberta Prediction

And it's a big one, an NDP majority.

My final prediction will come out on Monday evening, with possible but unlikely minor changes on Tuesday morning before the polls open.

Yesterday - Alberta

A follow up to my "Today" post.

So, what happened yesterday?

A few things, lets start at the bottom and work out way up

1 - The Liberals were totally ineffective, as expected.

2 - Wildrose did worse than I expected, being nonexistent nearly.

3 - The Alberta Party actually had an alright day. Their coverage, mostly in social media, was very limited, but all good.

The Tories did one crucial thing they needed to, they came out hard against the NDP on economics.

Prentice has years of experience attacking the left, and is in his element with these attacks. They, however, failed to present a good alternative, but that might not be needed.

The NDP meanwhile didn't do much, but had some unexpected support. Polls show people still think the PC Party will win. The biggest thing in the NDP's favour is actually this. If people think a vote for the NDP is risk-free, they are much more likely to do so.

The biggest boon for the NDP was Nenshi saying he thinks the Tories will win. This might only be worth 2% of the Calgary vote, due to the new risk-free status of the NDP, but that's 2% less for the Tories, and 2% more for the NDP, and a 4% gap can win ridings.

Unexpected, was the number of polls that came out, all showing the NDP in the lead.

All in all this was a good day for both the Tories and the NDP, but not very much "better" for one VS the other.

So. What now?

The weekend.
We let people sit on this idea of the NDP in a huge lead.
We let people consider the fact the NDP might win and how they feel about that.

It will be on Monday that we will see the first inklings of that, and like 2012, the day before the election will be the crucial swing day, where voters may change their mind and make the unexpected happen.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Teddy's map for April 30th

Tied to my observations in the "today" post.


#abvote: Despite Losing Massively in Votes, Could PCs Still Win in Seats?

There are a number of poll releases today, with two currently out already (one from Return on Insights done at the behest of the CBC, and a Leger poll that I can't find the link for but shows similar results) making me feel right silly because I updated my average yesterday - oh well.

In lieu of a weekly update, I thought I'd do a post on an idea currently going around, being promoted by the folks at 1ABVote and CBC: that the PCs, despite being far, far behind the NDP in support, could still come up with a majority government.

While this idea isn't an impossibility, it is fairly, if not extremely and close to impossibly, unlikely - not with the levels of support we are currently seeing for the NDP across all regions, not just Edmonton.

While I don't pretend my model is perfect and 100% accurate, it does have the benefit of working off of actual numbers, ones from 2012 in particular that have been modified to reflect what current polling says. If we take 1ABVote's Google Surveys poll, the one they said showed the PCs winning a minority despite being 24-points behind the NDP, we get this:

That is hardly a "PC minority," and indeed the Tories would be very hard pressed to get anything close to a minority situating when they are 24-points behind the leading party.

So why is this idea persisting? Part of the reason is that people see that high number in Edmonton, and assume the NDP lead is built solely off of that; of course it isn't, as in the above poll, the NDP lead in every region, and in the RoI poll done for the CBC, the NDP lead in both Edmonton and the Rest of Alberta, while they're sitting at 25% in Calgary, second only to the PCs who are at 32%.

The NDP surge is centered in Edmonton, but it is hardly only there. Like in 2011, the rise in one part of the country (Quebec) led to similar increases in other parties as anti-Conservative votes and people who always wanted to vote NDP but never thought they could win decided to jump on the bandwagon. In that situation, the increases were less impressive but still suitably strong for the party to score second place in a number of provinces it never had before. In Alberta, we're seeing increases that, while they don't match the party's score in Edmonton, are very impressive for a party that earned maybe 10% or less in these regions before.

We're talking about a party that may triple or quadruple its vote share across the province, not just in one location. Despite an inefficient vote generally, that kind of tide would be very hard for the other parties to hold against. Its just too much to handle, and a lot of things would have to go just right for the Tories to eek out any kind of government on those numbers. It would be nigh on impossible, really.

If the PCs do eek out a win, the numbers will not look like what are coming out of pollsters currently; you will either see the PCs with a lead in votes, or the PCs with numbers very close to or matching the NDP (or whoever is leading). Once the parties start matching each other, then absolutely the PCs could and would win. Both parties on 35% each on election night, and my bet is for the PCs to have many more seats, maybe even a majority - the PC vote is simply more spread out, more efficient, and frankly has a larger pool of voters to draw from than the NDP do.

That isn't what the polls are showing, however - they're previewing an NDP sweep. Maybe the trend is moving towards the PCs but until I see one come out with them neck and neck, I wouldn't get my hackles up.

Where things get trickier is if you start assuming that the polling itself is wrong, or if you inflate the margins of error to ridiculous levels. Once you do that, you can cook up any result you wish basically. For my part, I don't assume the polls are inaccurate until they can be proven to be poorly done or on election day. After all, I have no more special insights into the electorate's mind than these pollsters, or anyone else for that matter, does.