Saturday, August 30, 2014

New Brunswick Prediction Update

Teddy here with an update to the map and the prediction.

I have re-adjusted the 'regions' within the province to be more logical. There is now a 17-seat Acadian region. This region contains every riding where there are more French speakers compared to English speakers. The remaining ridings, Anglophone, are divided into two 26 seat regions; Fundy and Central.

The current prediction is as follows:



I've also used census data to compile a real demographic map. It is as follows:



So, where are things going? The answer is a bit of a surprise to me, despite my earlier post.

The Liberals are doing poorly.

I don't see the Tories doing much better, both seem to be a bit vague at the risk of upsetting voters, but the Tories are more willing to take positions; the problem is those positions are unpopular.

So, who stands to benefit? The NDP. The NB NDP is running their strongest campaign in history, and they are up against two weak campaigns from the Liberals and Tories.

I personally would not be surprised to see this election end with the NDP taking far more than 7 seats.




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Monday, August 25, 2014

New Brunswick, example of a bad Liberal result

Simply, the Liberals are expected to win the election by a huge margin. What, though, if they only won by a smaller margin?

I've taken recent polls and cherry picked some good results for the PC Party, NDP, Greens, and PANB from different polls. I've combined them with a low Liberal number, and have produced the following result:



Since the image uploader is being fussy, I'll explain what is supposed to be shown.

This is a map (of course) that indicates the following.
In the 15 seat "North Central New Brunswick" region that I outlined in my previous post on the province, I expect to see the following:
41.6% - 11 - Lib
32.4% - 3 - PC
22.1% - 1 - NDP
3.0% - 0 - Grn
0.9% - 0 - PANB

In "South East New Brunswick" with it's 13 seats, I expect the following:
38.7% - 10 - Lib
28.9% - 3 - PC
21.8% - 0 - NDP
10.1% - 0 - Grn
0.6% - 0 - PANB

In the 10 seat "Saint John Area" I expect the following:
32.0% - 3 - Lib
30.8% - 3 - PC
29.9% - 4 - NDP
5.8% - 0 - Grn
1.4% - 0 - PANB

And lastly in the 11 seat "South Central New Brunswick" I've mapped this:
34.6% - 7 - PC
27.3% - 2 - Lib
24.6% - 2 - NDP
9.3% - 0 - Grn
4.2% - 0 - PANB

This is based on, and provides the following result:

37.0% - 26 - Lib
31.0% - 16 - PC
24.0% - 7 - NDP
6.5% - 0 - Grn
1.5% - 0 - PANB

The Liberals, it should be noted, are polling much closer to 47% than 37%.
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Friday, August 22, 2014

Liberal Majority, second try

Due to some mapping errors in the last post, I decided to do another post about the possibility of a Liberal majority. Rather than attempt a reverse prediction, I've simply boosted real polling numbers in ways I feel are realistic.

I've also taken steps to reduce future map errors. Each map now contains numbers indicating the number of seats each party wins. These numbers are accurate and if the ridings do not match, it is an indication of an error in the colouring. This helps me find these errors and correct them.

This prediction has the following results

172 - Liberal (majority)
107 - Conservative
57 - NDP
1 - Green
1 - Bloc









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Thursday, August 21, 2014

What 170 seats might look like

I decided to do a quick reverse prediction, where rather than taking existing polling numbers and finding the seat total, I adjusted the polling numbers to produce a seat total.

Based on current polls, my understanding of current events, and my read of where the Liberals want to focus in the coming election, this is my 'best educated guess' as to which 170 seats Justin Trudeau has in mind.

edited to add:
I may have grabbed the incorrect map files. I will be doing a further follow-up post to this that does not focus so much on the number 170
















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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Elections to come

The summer is drawing to it's symbolic close with Labour day coming within two weeks.

With that, I thought it was time to take a look at some coming elections and my predictions for them.


MUNICIPAL

The Toronto elections occur on October 27th 2014.
I uurge any residents of ward 24 to take a look at Dan Fox's campaign Dan is a Liberal who is running to replace Ford enabler David Shiner.

In my predictions for the last election I said a Ford victory in the Mayor's office was meaningless, as City Council would never take him seriously. I was wrong.

If you want to ensure competent governance, you need to elect a competent council.

Regardless, it is indeed the Mayor's race that gets the attention. From what I can gather though info I can find and poll averaging, the current race is as so.

37% - John Tory - Backing from many Liberals (for some reason I don't understand)
29% - Olivia Chow - The official unofficial NDP candidate
27% - Rob Ford - The begrudgingly default Conservative candidate

Tory has the clear lead right now, which may ironically be good news for some Liberals. The overwhelming majority of Liberals I have networked with here in the city are backing him. I personally despise him, but I report on numbers as they truly are, and not as I'd wish them to be (if the latter, this would be a 2-person race between Stintz and Soknacki)


SUB-NATIONAL

New Brunswick's election officially kicks off shortly. The Liberals have had a pretty strong polling lead for quite some time and should be able to leverage that into a victory. Unlike in places like Newfoundland, however, this is not a sure thing. Another party could still pull out a surprise victory.

Currently, I have the poll pegged at the following

51% - LIB
24% - PC
21% - NDP

This could result in an NDP caucus of half a dozen members, and a PC caucus not much larger.

I will be posting more on NB as the election draws closer. E-day is September 22nd.


Scotland will be having an independence referendum on the 18th of september.
Polls agree the NO side looks set to win.
From what I can gather, the polls are likely indicating the following outcome:

57% - NO
43% - YES

This would make it similar to Quebec's 1980 referendum in some ways.
I will also have more to say about this in the coming month as the polls (hopefully) solidify and converge



NATIONAL

New Zealand goes to the polls on September 20th. A prediction is difficult but as far as I can figure, these numbers for total seats seem most likely

62 - National (Incumbent) 
30 - Labour
16 - Green
6 - New Zealand First
7 - Various Maori Parties (likely mostly "Internet Mana")

I will also be posting a better analysis of this later on, including each party, what they stand for, and how NZ politics works.


Lastly, I have my eye on Sweden.
There are a number of major parties in Sweden. The Social Democrats usually take top spot in polling. The Moderates however won the last election.

Moderate allies include the Liberals and Centre party as well as the Christian Democrats.
Social Democrat allies have traditionally been the Left party and the Greens.

The Swedish Democrats, seen by many as "a racist party" is not in any alliance.

The Feminist Party, not currently in Parliament, would likely sit with the left-wing alliance if elected.

Currently, the following seems likely

175 - Left (Majority)
140 - Right (Incumbent)
34 - Democrats

As always, I'll keep you up to date on developments as they occur.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

What happens when "Humans Need Not Apply?"



The above is a very interesting, if alarming, video by a YouTuber named CGPGrey, who I've subscribed to for a while now and I suggest you do to if you've got an interest in random, well-researched videos on various topics.

The video, entitled "Humans Need Not Apply," is CGPGrey's longest and most detailed video yet, and touches on a subject that I've barely heard anyone, especially our political leadership, delve into. That is how our society today is not prepared for the fact that, at some point, automation will inevitably outpace human workers and there are going to be a lot of people out of a job, both low and high skilled.

The video explains it better than I can in one paragraph, so I encourage you to watch it. I know its an old trope to be worried about "the robots taking over!" but it is a serious question that has yet to receive an answer. An automated worker continuously works, its cheaper, it makes less mistakes than human worker, and it doesn't organize and antagonize against its employers. Robots can not only do the line work of assembly plants and the like, but also low-skill jobs such as your grocery store checkout, your Tim Hortons coffee server, or even my job as a taxi dispatcher (think Hail-O or Uber), in addition to even professional jobs. Watson, the Jeopardy-playing robot, has a full time job as a diagnostic robot. Lawyers also often siphon off their busywork of discovery to robots and computers, replacing interns.

Essentially, no job - not even creative jobs, by the way - is safe from automation. That is a reality we need to deal with, and its not one we can push off to the fare future. I fully expect that within my lifetime, there is a good chance that up to 45% of the workforce, as mentioned in the video, could be out of work thanks to automation.

Now, whether that is a good thing or bad thing isn't necessarily the point anymore, because its already reality. Its a reality that political governments need to address now before the problem becomes acute - yet I really strain to find any mention of the issue in any Canadian political party platform. For the Liberal's part, I remember back in January that we had several motions regarding our flagging manufacturing sector, such as this one from the Cambridge FLA (just an example, not the end policy). It does address some issues in Canadian manufacturing, but not the main one killing it off, automation, which could also, ironically, save Canadian manufacturing by driving down costs for labour and so on.

Then there is the fact that low-skill, low-wage jobs are often the ones being targeted next for automation. When there are no Tim Horton's jobs left, where do the unemployed go from there? One could say getting an education and moving into fields that require specific knowledge and specialists, but eventually those are going to be targeted as well. It would also be a huge nightmare to try and shuffle millions of people through higher education, especially when enough of them may not have jobs necessary to pay tuition! What is our solution then, force people to go into debt to just get the education necessary to get a job just so they can then work to pay off said debt?

There are so many attendant problems coming, but no one is paying them any heed. Governments around the world have tax incentives and the like to get the unemployed into jobs, but what happens when those jobs don't want the unemployed! Are you going to legislate that businesses take in human workers and stop automation, thereby causing us to fall behind technologically and also, more seriously, in our costs of doing business; or are we going to have to ramp up our social security system in response so people at least have a basic standard of living, and all the problems that comes with that, growing national debt the least of them?

I don't know the solution, but something needs to be thought up, and soon. This is the future after all, and if anyone in Ottawa is serious about their jobs, they'll have to figure this out or watch things go to hell in the future, whether you're Conservative, Liberal, NDP, or whatever. That really is it.
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Thursday, August 7, 2014