I know the news is now somewhat old, but there was a funky Forum Research poll out on December 15th that showed the situation in British Columbia is a whole lot more complicated than first glance.
The numbers show:
34% BC NDP
23% BC Liberal
23% BC Conservative
Wha... who... huh? That's an absolute shocker, given that the average race so far is roughly 40% NDP, 35% Liberal, and 15% Con. I didn't think Christy Clark was doing that badly.
What would happen if these numbers were true? According to my sort of roughshod projection (not at home, so I have the base system, not the refined one), you'd get 54 NDP, 16 Conservatives, 12 Liberals, 1 Green, and 2 Independents (from the 5% "others").
Now, that's a tad insane, and Adrian Dix's majority is only because of heavy, massive vote-splitting between Clark and Con leader John Cummins. The Green comes from West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, one of their stronger seats provincially.
But yeah, who can say what this is? Granted, it is Forum's first foray into BC provincial polling, and the Green number is nearly twice as high as other pollsters have shown over the year. You could, more or less, say this is an outlier and be comfortably backed up.
But let's make this clear - the BC Conservatives are not to be taken as a joke party they were before. They're a protest vote, and as we've seen federally, all it takes is one misstep and the protest party is ahead of you in the game.