Friday, December 30, 2011

Is This Actually BC? Part Deux

Thanks to commenter bobljeffries who pointed me in the direction of this NRG Research poll conducted just awhile back, after the Forum poll, which gave these numbers:

36% BC NDP
32% BC Liberal
19% BC Conservative
13% "Other"

They also give a wrongly colour-coded chart which breaks down the numbers for three regions of BC. In the Lower Mainland, the Liberals lead with 36% to the NDP's 33% and the Con's 18%; in the Interior, the NDP lead with 40% to 28% for the Cons and 20% for the Liberals; and on the Island and North Coast, the NDP lead with 39% to the Liberal's 31% and the Conservative's 19%.

What does this mean in terms of seats? It still means an NDP majority and Premier Adrian Dix. The BC NDP would win 46 seats, the Liberals 28, and the Conservatives 9, with 2 Independents in the mix. But that is a heck of a lot better than the 54-16-12-4 split of Forum's poll.


  1. I'll see what I can do about a model for projecting the BC-CON vote

  2. I've got it down already I think, but another opinion is better than nothing. Look especially close to how it'll break down in the suburbs.

  3. The problem is trying to figure out what the Conservative vote would be in places they did not run candidates last time.