Forum Research has put out a new series of "trial heats" for the Toronto mayoralty (last one covered here) apparently showing that only Olivia Chow has a good shot at beating Ford in any race imaginable.
Let's go down the list quickly.
Ford vs. Sarah Thomson: 41% to 36%, 23% D/K
In this match-up, Ford squeaks out a win against 2010 mayoralty candidate, 2011 OLP candidate, and general pain in the neck for Ford, Sarah Thomson. Problem for Thomson, like Smitherman before her, is that her only lead is in the old City of Toronto, with Ford leading in the old suburban communities.
Oddly enough, only 43% of the city's provincial Liberals would vote for Thomson, over 35% for Ford. Hm, that's odd. Even the NDP are more likely to vote Thomson.
Ford vs. Thomson vs. Chow vs. Adam Vaughn: 43% - 32% - 13% - 7%
As I noted, Chow dominates, winning 43% support Toronto-wide, compared to paltry numbers for Ford, and worse numbers for Thomson and Councillor Adam Vaughn. Guess no one is worried about a vote split, are they?
Chow would lead Ford in every portion of the city except Scarborough, where Ford leads 42% to 31%. This is an easy romp for Chow, as are the next three trials, which include a three-way race with Thomson, and a four-way race with Copuncillor - that is how it is spelled in the release, and I am not one to dispute it - Shelley Carroll.
Ford vs. Chow: 60% to 33% - 7% D/K
In a head to head match, Chow easily defeats Ford. Not much to say, though oddly Ford still beads Chow out in Scarborough, 47% to 45%. I wonder whats up with that.
Though to be honest, I have no idea why people believe Olivia Chow would be a
good Mayor. I just don't see it, but hey, it isn't my city.
At the very least, people seem to have found something of a savior for Toronto. If Chow runs, she would be a heavy favourite to win. The question is whether or not she will - Olivia hasn't made her intentions clear yet, and probably won't until next year.
If she doesn't run, then the field is wide open. But can anyone that isn't Olivia Chow can beat Ford? This is where the Forum release lacks substance, as we only get one non-Chow trial heat. In it, Ford gets above 40% support. That could be because of the candidate they faced him against, as I don't think anyone is very clear on who Thomson is or what she would do, aside from the recent controversies. There are a lot of don't knows in those numbers, meaning that the if another big name runs, say Karen Stintz or John Tory, they'll likely pick up Thomson's weak support and the don't knows.
But what I don't get is how Torontonians aren't fleeing to the nearest non-Ford option, big name or no. Whats going on in their heads that leads them to believe Ford is a better option than, say, Vaughn or Thomson? He isn't!
Ah, whatever. Like I said, it isn't my city. I live in the town farthest away I can get from it and still be within the GTA. Crazy Torontonians.