Friday, April 26, 2013

Angus Reid BC Poll: 45% NDP, 31% BC Liberal

We've got just over two weeks to go before E-day in British Columbia, and so far there has actually been some slim pickings for polling done. Since the beginning of April (including this one today) we've only had four - four! - polls done, half of those by Angus Reid. I miss the days of almost daily polling during the federal election. Anyways...

Angus Reid (BC Provincial - April 24-25, 2013 - +/- 3.5%)
New Democratic: 45% (=) - 61 seats
BC Liberal Party: 31% (+3%) - 21 seats
BC Conservative: 11% (-1%) - 1 seat
Green Party: 10% (-3%) - 0 seats
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

This actually is the first post-writ-drop poll out for BC, since all the others done in April were in the field before the 16th. There has clearly not been too much going on, not even since March's Angus Reid release (the above numbers are compared to another AR poll done earlier this month that I didn't cover).

The NDP lead everywhere in the regional breakdown, ranging from a very wide lead in the North (54% to 22% BCL), to a small lead in the Interior (41% to 35% BCL). In the all-important Metro Vancouver, the NDP lead with 46% to the Liberal's 32%.

The one Conservative riding comes from the Fraser Valley region, specifically Chilliwack, though its an extremely close race there with the NDP. The Liberals 21 seats are exclusively limited to the Lower Mainland/Fraser Valley region and the Interior, as there is nothing available for them on Vancouver Island or the North, not with the NDP domination in those regions.

That being said, it could be a worse poll for the Liberals. At 31% they're far ahead of their other rivals, and seem to be stable. If they manage to stick around 30% for the rest of the campaign, they're probably assured between 20 to 30 seats - obviously not government, but definitely not doomed-to-extinction numbers either.

The bad news for the Liberals is that Adrian Dix's NDP are also stable at 45%ish, a strong number for the NDP that puts them higher than what they managed back in 1991 (40.7%), the last time the free-market party of the day lost (its also higher than their 1972 sweep, if you can believe that).

Anyways, I'll update my projection later on, when the final candidates list is updated by Elections BC, which should be out either tonight or tomorrow.

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