I am starting to understand the Conservative's current fixation on Justin Trudeau, as Harris-Decima's new poll on the federal leaders is showing the young Trudeau not only competing well with Harper (if not outright beating him in several key aspects), but completely trashing Thomas Mulcair like some sort of wonderful sideshow attraction.
This poll is actually pretty big, so I'll only focus on a few things and for the rest you can check it out yourself. But first up, here's the Best Prime Minister numbers:
The race for Best PM is pretty tight according to this poll, but Trudeau has managed to edge out Harper, 33% to 31%. That is an excellent start and, given some of the other things in this poll, something of a feat to pull off, but we'll get into that in a second.
Trudeau leads for Best PM in BC (34%) and Atlantic Canada (42%), and is tied with Harper in Ontario (36%). He comes second to Harper in Alberta and Saskitoba, and second to Mulcair in Quebec (37% to 34%). Trudeau also leads among the 18-34 and 50+ demographic, as well as among female respondents, those with income under $60K and above $100K, and of course leads among Liberals.
Actually, take a closer look at those party numbers. While Harper dominates among Conservative respondents with 85%, Trudeau comes second with 68% among Liberal respondents; Mulcair sits at only 52% among NDP respondents! I believe I found this same correlation somewhere before, probably in an EKOS poll, where Mulcair is clearly not the inspiring leader NDPers would love us to believe he is, not even among their own supporters. And while 68% isn't the greatest number ever either, the fact is that we just got our new leader - the NDP have had theirs for a year now, and he still isn't delivering the goods.
Moving on, here's why Trudeau shouldn't necessarily be leading in Best PM numbers right now:
The good news on that front is that Mulcair, whose narrative so far has focused on the economy, jobs, etc., clearly doesn't have anyone's attention. His biggest support comes from Quebec and BC, where people keep on drinking Orange Crush despite signs that its patently unhealthy for you.
As I mentioned, there are some other tidbits in there so give them a look. So far, people are willing to give Trudeau the benefit of the doubt and seem to like this fresh new face. But it won't last forever, and there are clear areas where we have a deficit even from the outset. Once the honeymoon period ends, our answer on the economy and on experience will matter even more as defining issues.
In other words, the roller coaster is currently at its first peak, it will be downhill from here. Whether we survive to the next one will be up to Trudeau and Liberals everywhere to work towards.