Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Ontario results on the new map, and an EU update.

I've used some of the new poll maps to try to put Ontario's most recent provincial election on the new approved Federal election map.

There is no guarantee that this map will serve as Ontario's new provincial election map, but for the past number of elections, Ontario has used the Federal map with some modifications where it feels needed (such as in Northern Ontario)

Thus the map looks like such:


There were some ridings where I had to make judgement calls as eyeballing it was unclear. In particular, 04 and 24 from the Ontario map, and 06 and 56 from the Toronto area map.

There however were three ridings where I would need to count all the polls individually to ensure an accurate map. These are the new Barrie South riding, the Halton riding, and the new outer-Hamilton riding. I've done my best with my limited time but if anyone wishes to count it up mathematically and let me know of your results, feel free.


In addition, an update on Europe, where the FN's group has fallen to bits due to internal discord. I've also corrected all errors on the graphic:


9 comments:

  1. I thought Thornhill went PC after a reversal of a clerical error but, it looks Liberal red on your map.

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    Replies
    1. Different Thornhills - the current ends at Hwy 404, the new one ends at Bayview.

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    2. I see. Thanks for the clarification.

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    3. Indeed; but counting the polls couldn't hurt

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  2. Toronto
    2 new ridings
    Both go Liberal

    Durham
    1 new riding
    it goes Liberal

    York Region
    3 new ridings
    All go Liberal
    1 riding switches PC to Lib

    Brampton
    2 new ridings
    1 goes Liberal, 1 NDP

    Mississauga
    1 new riding
    it goes Liberal

    Halton
    1 new riding
    it goes Liberal

    Hamilton
    2 new ridings
    both go Liberal

    Waterloo region
    1 new riding
    it goes Liberal

    Northern Ontario
    1 less riding
    1 less NDP

    Ottawa
    1 new riding
    it goes PC

    Eastern Ontario
    1 new riding
    it goes Liberal

    Simcoe
    1 riding split in two
    one half remains Liberal
    one half goes PC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Knowing Wynne, she will likely probably make an effort keep the Northern boundaries the same as 2014 or even give the region more representation.

      Another thought I have. Some political analysts claim the federal riding redistribution helps the Tories since most seats are in the 905 area. Some people in comment boards even claim that Harper and his crew has gerrymandered ridings in Ontario.

      I believe the region usually leans Liberal, but the Tories are competitive this is the region they would have to win to get a majority government in Queen's Park or Ottawa.I feel future Conservative and Liberal majorities can be larger, since there are now more 905 seats, and this region tends to swing uniform.

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    2. I agree with you 100% Jay. While based on 2011 numbers, the new redistribution helps the Tories immensely by expanding the GTA, the fact is that the Tories need to keep hoping to post their 2011 numbers in the region, something that doesn't seem to be possible as this point (though not *impossible*). The Liberals are the natural opposition in this area, so any swing away from the Tories means a whole bunch of ridings swinging to the Liberals, and very few swinging to the NDP, if any.

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    3. Big Jay,

      Boundary redistribution is handled by a non-partisan committee per province usually composed of a distinguished jurist as chair and other esteemed members of the broad provincial community. To claim; "Harper and his crew has (sic) gerrymandered ridings in Ontario" is risible! You are insinuating that Mr. Justice Valin, Mr. Doug Colbourne and Dr. Pal have knowingly and improperly executed their jobs as boundary commissioners. It is untrue and completely insulting to these individuals. If you are going to publish slander do so under your real name so that those you injure have recourse to resolve the matter. Such a comment really is the lowest common denominator and speaks volumes about your intelligence and honesty.

      Delete
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