Friday, August 19, 2016

#bcpoli poll: 38% BCL, 29% NDP, 16% Grn

Quick post today in case people aren't aware of the current state of BC politics - a new poll was released, the first in several months, showing what appears to be an absolute wash for the BC Liberals.

Innovative Research, which is a semi-regular pollster during election season in past BC races, put the race at 38% BC Lib, 29% NDP, 16% Green and 15% BC Con.

Since at least early 2013, and I'd wager probably since the 2009 election, the Liberals have never had something like a nine-point lead over their NDP rivals. If Horgan led his party to that result it would be the third worst result for the party since its name change in the 1960s, with only 1963 and 2001 beating it out. It would be a disaster, while the Liberals would coast on by to an easy majority, despite 38% being their worst result since 1991.


Using the now updated BC election model, I get 55 BCL, 17 NDP, 10 Greens and 5 Conservatives. Ouch.

But it gets worse for the NDP, considering that the numbers for the BC Conservatives are very inflated. As I mentioned last post, the party is disorganized and currently doesn't even have a leader, that honour going to whichever of the no-names wins in September, with little but months to prepare for an election.

There is no way the Conservatives can maintain that kind of strength, but the Greens? Likely they'll fall back, but there is also a good chance they won't. To get to 16%, all they have to do is hit around 35% on Vancouver Island and they can settle for teens or lower everywhere else, and that will likely be their strategy going forward.

The NDP better get their house in order quickly before the Greens start looking to supplant them as opposition.

4 comments:

  1. I am surprised you get to five seats for the BCCP and 10 for the Greens with these numbers.

    One thing to consider with the BCCP is that the woman most likely to win the leadership has stated she would not run a full slate

    The last poll I can find where the NDP in BC was below 30% was the Mustel poll in August 2013 https://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2016/08/bcs-2013-elxn-on-new-boundaries-bcpoli.html

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  3. Your seat prediction for the Greens, Conservatives and NDP is way out of whack. The Greens would be lucky to win four seats and the Conservatives one. If you don't know anything about BC politics you should refrain from writing about it until you become properly educated on the subject.

    In conclusion, please stop commenting on issues you know little to nothing about.

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  4. I have to agree with Winnipeg here. 10 seats for the Greens on 16% of the vote is just not likely to be correct. If you had a poll showing the Greens with 40% support on Vancouver Island it may be plausible but, it would still be unlikely. 5 seats for the Conservatives on 15% of the vote also very unlikely, once again if you had a poll that showed the Conservatives at 40% in the North it could be plausible but, still not likely.

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